Monthly Archives: January 2016

S&P500 View

Weekly Chart
Weekly Chart
Daily Chart
Daily Chart

Comments:

Weekly chart shows price drop with increase volume with last week bar closed with signs of reversal, coupled with high volume. It suggest demand supporting price region. However, higher low is formed, although lower low from perspective of weekly chart is still probably work in progress. Overall, from weekly chart, we may see interim pull back, however, likely will not surpass the last high (box up in blue of weekly chart). Zooming into daily chart, we can see that price move down with increasing volume, similar to weekly chart, but when last wide range bar appear, the volume accompanying it non committal. From daily chart perspective, it is reaching supply 1, possible shorting area. But considering weekly chart, supply 2 present a better shorting opportunity (at around 2042 area).

S&P500 View

S&P500 Weekly Chart
S&P500 Weekly Chart
S&P500 Daily Chart
S&P500 Daily Chart
S&P500 H4 Chart
S&P500 H4 Chart

Comments:

Weekly chart shows no trend with downside bias. Price closed lower with increase volume. Currently price is within layered of dz (w1, d1, h4). Zooming into h4, inside bar / harami is shown, if one had shorted, better to take profit, then re-entering short later. If one intend to long based on h4 timeframe, risk to reward is 1:1 with greater risk. Also, as mentioned earlier, now price is within w1 dz. Therefore, if no position, opined to stay on side to look for either break out on downside, retrace, then enter on supply. Or if strong reversal signal shows, with volume signs, enter long with tight stoploss, where risk to reward ratio at pretty acceptable range.

S&P500 View

W1 Chart
W1 Chart
D1 Chart
D1 Chart
H4 Chart
H4 Chart

Comments:

Uptrend line intact on w1 chart. On the verge of breaking out on downside. If next week stay below the trendline, new downtrend line could be drawn on downside. The price reaction coupled with volume suggest that overtime, potentially price may break on downside. Price currently entering w1 demand zone.

Looking at d1 chart, price break out on downside on the confluence area between downtrend channel bottom, demand area that coincide with previous double bottom breakout zone and with high volume, retrace and continue downside movement. Likely will continue downside till it hit area between d1 demand zone 1 & 2 (1883 to 1832). Seller in control currently looking at context. Need to watch out if d1 dz2 is break through to decide action. Shorter term trading is possible.

Looking at h4 chart, price entering h4 dz1, which is also near h4 dz2; in this case, combine the dz1 & 2 to give h4 dz range for 1927 to 1870; Considering higher timeframe context, on w1 chart, not in actionable area.

Conclusion, higher chance that downside breakout with respect to w1 chart would happen. Stay on sideline may be better and wait for downside breakout to happen, when price retrace to the breakout zone, and when price pattern form, it would be high probable trade towards downside to the next lower w1 demand zone.

S&P500 View

USA500 M5 Chart
USA500 M5 Chart
USA500 D1 Chart
USA500 D1 Chart
USA500 W1 Chart
USA500 W1 Chart
USA500 MN1 Chart
USA500 MN1 Chart

Comments: Mn1 and W1 chart uptrendline intact; D1 chart shows price touch D1 Dz, which coincide with previous DB breakout area, which makes it a reasonable Dz. Price holding above. Zooming into M5 chart, immediate Downtrend line break on upside. It price retrace and stay above 1982, it may potential move to about 2000. SL at about 1970.  If price move through 2000, next price level it may hit is potentially around 2016. Thereafter, 2060.