Monthly Archives: August 2015

Week of 31 Aug – Risk Events

Risk Events that is of concern to me:

1 Sep – Tue: Impact of AUD pairs @ 1230H Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement

3 Sep – Thu: Impact of EUR pairs @ 1945H Minimum Bid Rate, @ 2030H ECB Press Conference; USD pairs @ 2030H Trade Balance & Unemployment Claims

4 Sep – Fri: Impact on most pairs @ entire day G20 Meetings; USD pairs @ 2010H FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, @ 2030H Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate; CAD pairs @ 2030H Employment Change & Unemployment Rate, @ 2200H Ivey PMI; Most pairs @ 1700H G20 meetings

5 Sep – Sat: Impact most pairs @ whole day G20 meetings

Intention: Avoid trading AUD pairs before 1 Sep @ 1230H. Avoid trading from Thu afternoon onwards

 

 

Week of 24 Aug – Risk Events

Risk events that is of concern to me:

25  Aug – Tue: Impact on USD pairs @ 0355H FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

26 Aug – Wed: Impact on CAD pairs @ 1225H Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks; AUD pairs @ 0930H RBA Gov Stevens Speaks; USD pairs @ 2200H FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

27 Aug – Thu: Impact on USD pairs @ 2030H Unemployment Claims

28 to 29 Aug – Fri to Sat: Impact of all pairs @ whole day (Fri & Sat) Jackson Hole Symposium; Impact on GBP @ 1025H (Sat) BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Intention: Unwind floating loss position, thereafter reduce risk. No trades to be carried out from Thu onwards.

Week of 17 Aug – Risk Events

Risk events that is of concern to me:

18 Aug – Tue: Impact on AUD pairs @ 0930H Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

20 Aug – Thu: Impact on USD pairs @ 0200H FOMC Meeting Minutes & @ 2030H Unemployment Claims; Impact on JPY pairs @ 0200H tentatively Monetary Policy Statement & @ 1400H BOJ Press Conference

Intention: Reduce or maintain no risk position.

XAUUSD Views

XAUUSD broke down from triangle formation which was formed over a significant period of time. This broke down should be significant normally. However, price movement was met with higher time frame demand zone (weekly and monthly).

The downside would likely prevail after some struggle. Short term upside may likely be experience.  Thing to watch is the breech of monthly demand zone. After overcoming monthly demand, when price retrace, it would present a good chance for short entry.

XAUUSD Monthly Chart
XAUUSD Monthly Chart
XAUUSD Weekly Chart
XAUUSD Weekly Chart
XAUUSD Daily Chart
XAUUSD Daily Chart

AUDSGD Views

Weekly chart still on downtrend. Last week candle shows strength when price moves near weekly demand zone. Price is currently near downtrend channel top.  For it to truely breakout on the upside, it would likely need to have drop back and stay, forming a higher low before a true breakout on the upside can happen.

Zooming into daily chart, daily downtrend line is broken. With weekly chart as the backdrop, price would need to drop back and form a higher low, probably on the broken downtrend line. However, the journey towards upside would be faced with many hurdles as shown on the daily chart.

For potential investors of AUDSGD, exercise patient if one keen to long AUDSGD. For potential traders, maybe other pairs offer better trading condition.

AUDSGD Weekly Chart
AUDSGD Weekly Chart
AUDSGD Daily Chart
AUDSGD Daily Chart

10 to 15 Aug – Risk Events

10 Aug – Impact USD pairs: @1915H FOMC Member Fischer Speaks; @2100H FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

11 Aug – Impact USD pairs: @ 0025H FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

12 Aug – Impact JPY pairs: @ 0750H Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Impact AUD pairs: @ 1800H RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks

13 Aug – Impact AUD pairs: @ 1015H RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks; Impact EUR pairs: @ 1930H ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Concern with qualitative information from speeches.

 

AUDSGD Views

Monthly, weekly and daily chart showing downtrend. Price is entering (monthly) and approaching (weekly) higher time frame demand. This is possible area to watch out for to initial position when appropriate reversal pattern is shown in lower time frame (daily chart), and when downtrend line is broken (daily).

As this week consist of many fundamental data related to AUD that will be released, it would be better after this week, when the dust are settled, and when chart pattern are formed to give prompter for adding position, if one is keen and has confidence in AUD over longer period of time.

AUDSGD Daily Chart
AUDSGD Daily Chart
AUDSGD Weekly Chart
AUDSGD Weekly Chart
AUDSGD Monthly Chart
AUDSGD Monthly Chart

EURAUD Views

Monthly chart is on downtrend; Weekly chart is on uptrend; Daily chart is on uptrend;
Price is at high with respect to higher timeframe, monthly chart. Price is entering the supply zone, we can zoom down to daily timeframe and watch for the price reaction. If reversal pattern is form, possible shorting opportunity.

2015-08-02_20-28-36 EA mn down
EURAUD monthly chart
2015-08-02_20-33-01 EA wk up
EURAUD weekly chart
EURAUD daily chart
EURAUD daily chart

3 to 8 Aug 15 – Risk Events

There are many risk event which are listed in red under forex calender (forexfactory.com). I typically watch out for events that involved announcement / speech by authority and take active measures to reduce risk exposure if there are open positions, or avoid adding new positions on the currency pairs related announcement / speech. This is to prevent unforeseen circumstances that causes market to over react. This week, I am watching out for some of the events:

4 Aug (Tue), 1230H – AUD cashrate & RBA rate statement

6 Aug (Thu), 1900H – GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement (tentative) & BOE Inflation Report; 1945H – GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

7 Aug (Fri), 0930H – AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement & JPY Monetary Policy Statement (tentative); 1400H – JPY BOJ Press Conference (tentative); 2030H – USD Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate & CAD – Employment Change & Unemployment Change

Actions: Maintain or reduction of position size related to GBP, AUD, USD & JPY pairs.