XAUUSD broke down from triangle formation which was formed over a significant period of time. This broke down should be significant normally. However, price movement was met with higher time frame demand zone (weekly and monthly).
The downside would likely prevail after some struggle. Short term upside may likely be experience. Thing to watch is the breech of monthly demand zone. After overcoming monthly demand, when price retrace, it would present a good chance for short entry.
Weekly chart still on downtrend. Last week candle shows strength when price moves near weekly demand zone. Price is currently near downtrend channel top. For it to truely breakout on the upside, it would likely need to have drop back and stay, forming a higher low before a true breakout on the upside can happen.
Zooming into daily chart, daily downtrend line is broken. With weekly chart as the backdrop, price would need to drop back and form a higher low, probably on the broken downtrend line. However, the journey towards upside would be faced with many hurdles as shown on the daily chart.
For potential investors of AUDSGD, exercise patient if one keen to long AUDSGD. For potential traders, maybe other pairs offer better trading condition.
Monthly, weekly and daily chart showing downtrend. Price is entering (monthly) and approaching (weekly) higher time frame demand. This is possible area to watch out for to initial position when appropriate reversal pattern is shown in lower time frame (daily chart), and when downtrend line is broken (daily).
As this week consist of many fundamental data related to AUD that will be released, it would be better after this week, when the dust are settled, and when chart pattern are formed to give prompter for adding position, if one is keen and has confidence in AUD over longer period of time.
Monthly chart is on downtrend; Weekly chart is on uptrend; Daily chart is on uptrend;
Price is at high with respect to higher timeframe, monthly chart. Price is entering the supply zone, we can zoom down to daily timeframe and watch for the price reaction. If reversal pattern is form, possible shorting opportunity.
There are many risk event which are listed in red under forex calender (forexfactory.com). I typically watch out for events that involved announcement / speech by authority and take active measures to reduce risk exposure if there are open positions, or avoid adding new positions on the currency pairs related announcement / speech. This is to prevent unforeseen circumstances that causes market to over react. This week, I am watching out for some of the events: